Zimbabwe - The Tipping Point?

With elections taking place in Zimbabwe this weekend anticipation and concern seem to be mounting in equal measure.

The main opposition, the Movement for Democratic Change has complained of numerous hindrances in being able to mount an effective campaign to end the nearly 30 year rule of President Robert Mugabe and his ruling ZANU-PF party. This said, the campaigning from all sides has been thankfully largely peaceful.

Zimbabwe by any measure is in a state in meltdown. Its has the World's highest inflation, widespread food and energy shortages and is hemorrhaging its populace at a astonishing rate. For the hungry billionaires that remain life is very difficult, yet not all despite everything want to see the back of Mugabe. The President has been persistent in blaming Zimbabwe's woes on others. The adage that if you tell a lie enough times it eventually becomes accepted as the truth has found a contemporary case study in Zimbabwe.

This time however unlike in past elections there is such a clear and universal understanding that Mugabe cannot possibly win any free and fair vote. Even putting aside concerns about ballot stuffing, fraudulent registration of voters (a deceased member of parliament has even been found on the electoral role) intimidation and threats made to voters, delays at certain polling centres and unequal media space and time given to the opposition. The opinion polls, even taking the intimidation and threats into account still give the opposition a clear lead nationwide.

It is perhaps with this growing realisation that Mugabe at a recent election rally made the astonishing comment that the opposition should not dare try to protest against a result he knows he will win but which he also knows he will win by a massive fraud. He knows that he has managed to keep the security forces on side because he has ensured that despite the economic meltdown, they remain for the time paid and fed. They in turn in the short term will remain loyal to the President and have stated that they will deal harshly with any descent and disorder.

This could however still be the endgame for Mugabe. If there is a realisation that election fraud and mismanagement has inexplicably swung the result in his favour many Zimbabweans will feel that they have little to lose by then taking to the streets. In this most serious of outcomes Zimbabwe may experience violence even worse than that seen in Kenya after its recent and much criticised elections. This may test the loyalties of those closest to the President and may prompt defections from his party, intervention from South Africa or the African Union or a split in sections of the security forces and Army. Mugabe, unlike the Kenyan leadership cannot really stoke ethnic rivalries though he does command the loyalties of many of the so called 'War Veterans'. He may then be faced with the prospect of a recount, or even be forced to flee.

Should though Mugabe manage to hold onto power he surely must then be considered as Africa's newest dictator in all but name. The international community would then be faced with very tough choices on how to deal with him.

We can but then wait and hope for a peaceful and fair conclusion to the election. It should however be at the back of everyone's mind that development, poverty alleviation and fair prosperity is only really made possible by the absence of bad governance. It is then surely only humane to hope for a new political dawn for Zimbabwe.


Links & Resources:

Hii Dunia - Africa's worst leaders (including Mugabe)

This is Zimbabwe - Consistently the best Blog on Zimbabwe from exile Sokwanele