The Arrest of Karadzic - What Does it Mean and to Who?

Radovan Karadzic, 63, was accosted on a Belgrade bus on an otherwise mundane Monday, July 21st. This principal architect of the war in Bosnia and coordinator of the Srebrenica massacre (killing 8000 muslim men in 5 days in 1995), had been in hiding for thirteen years. During this time he had written a play from an unknown hiding place. Entitled “Situation”, it mocked the west’s attempts to capture him. Today, arrested and uncovered, Karadzic’s play, set in Belgrade, is laughably anachronistic, one scene too short. The world has watched the bearded and devout-looking Dr. Karadzic’s unmasking (and unmaking) with no less incredulity than that of a child seeing a Scooby Doo villain unveiled in a fantastical cartoon. But this is not the end of a cartoon, but a hunt for a war criminal accused - on 15 counts - of genocide and crimes against humanity. The many guises of Dr. Karadzic - playwright, poet, psychologist, one-time sports psychiatrist - were intriguing even before the war of 1992-1995. Yet surpassing all this we now learn that he lived in Belgrade as ‘Dragan Dabic’, working as an alternative therapist, spiritualist lecturer and columnist for the magazine ‘Healthy Life’. For the latter, he wrote on themes such as “peace of mind” - ironic for one of the world’s most wanted men, whose actions destroyed the peace of mind of many. Now, as the world digests news of this tale, we should consider whether any sustainable and substantial “peace of mind” can be guaranteed by these events, and for who? What does Karadzic’s arrest mean for Serbia, for BiH, for international law and the European Union (E.U)?

Karadzic’s arrest certainly suggests the dawn of a new political landscape in the notoriously proud and isolationist Serbia. The fact that the arrest occurred only days after pro-western President Boris Tadic triumphed in a crucial election suggests that a line may be being drawn under nationalist sentiments, or at least the mechanisms and power behind these. Following his victory, Tadic reformed Serbia’s security service, ousting its head (loyal to nationalist Prime Minister Kostunica) and installing a pro-western, pro-active candidate. This shift seems to have accelerated moves to arrest Karadzic, suggesting that though intelligence on his whereabouts may have long existed, the political will to act on such intelligence, so crucially needed, only recently materialised.

The move to arrest the war criminal was exceptionally well-timed, occurring as European Union members are seen to be developing what Misha Glenny calls “enlargement fatigue”. Following Karadzic’s unveiling, Serbia has moved closer to E. U membership rather than to nationalist regression, taking what many deem as a wise step after lingering for so long at a political crossroads. As for what the arrest means for international institutions, many suggest it will install fresh wind in the sails of the international justice system. The timing of Karadzic’s arrest means that he can be prosecuted by the international criminal tribunal for Yugoslavia (ICTY) before it closes in 2010, though Karadzic has for now vowed to fight extradition. In addition, Serbia’s bold move to arrest Karadzic (who some in the country still deem a ‘hero) so soon after the ‘loss’ of Kosovo, has been hailed by some as a reason to uphold the validity of the E.U. Indeed, it appears true that the lure of membership to the E.U and its many trade benefits can subtly coerce delinquent states into good behaviour in return for a metaphorical membership queue-jump. Nonetheless, though recent media coverage has framed this event in terms of it bringing “justice” to BiH, it is important to raise concern over the fact that Serbia’s gold-star actions appear largely economically motivated. This is of course understandable and pragmatic, but meanwhile for BiH, prospects for genuine ‘justice’ and ‘healing’, remain limited.

What does Karadzic’s arrest really mean for BiH? Paddy Ashdown, the former High Commissioner of the divided country, believes this “at last brings the prospect of justice to Bosnia”. Perhaps he is being too optimistic, too soon. After all, Haris Silajdzic, the Bosnian president, has remarked that “for justice to be complete we must erase the consequences” of the war. This remains central as the international community celebrates Karadzic’s capture. For, though Serbia may well deserve the reward of a turbo-boost on its path to E.U entry, and “prospects” for justice may unfold, BiH remains troubled. There is over 30% unemployment, a perceived culture of criminal impunity, many refugees have not returned home and over 10,000 bodies remain missing. “Justice” in the abstract sense may not be enough for BiH, haunted not only by ghosts of war but surrounded by physical reminders of its destruction. On top of this, BiH lags far behind Serbia and Croatia in terms of its prospects for EU entry. Indeed, even if BiH became an EU member, the economic benefits would flow into the whole territory, including the ‘Serb Republic’ (R.S) which occupies 49% of what was once a united Bosnia and was created by 1995’s Dayton Accords (which ended war but consolidated territorial gains made by Serbs). Since the R.S was conjured in part by Karadzic himself, his wartime vision will remain maintained, despite his capture and detention, as Adam Le Bor observes.

So, though Monday’s events warrant a deserved pat on the back for Serbia’s new government and give a much-needed rejuvenation to the validity of the E.U and the international justice system, a thought should remain for BiH. The very ‘peace of mind’, of which Karadzic himself wrote, is still a distant prize for many of his victims. In the meantime, his comment that “Serbs always have the last bullet” appears true. As Serbia heads towards the E.U, BiH sadly stagnates. Though Karadzic’s arrest has caused relief in BiH, Serbia will most probably be the ultimate benefactor in terms of material benefits.


Written for Hii Dunia by Alice Bloch


Links & Resources:

Times Online - 'Europe's powder keg could at last be defused'