Can Zardari uphold Pakistani Democracy?

On Tuesday 9th September 2008 Asif Ali Zardari the husband of the former two times Prime Minister the late Benazir Bhutto was sworn in as President of Pakistan. Here Faisal Hanif asseses Zardari's past and asks if Pakistan's first democractic leader this century is fit and able enough to guide this most fragile of democracies through possibly its most difficult of days.




Becoming President seems the most unlikely of achievements for a man who was indicted on endless charges of corruption for the past decade before the assassination of his wife and spent many years in prison as a result. What makes Zardari’s victory even more remarkable is that until Benazir’s assassination he had been in exile from the country for most of the last decade and returned only upon the assassination of Ms Bhutto last December. Up until July 2008 he was still facing corruption charges and as early as last month he was part of a coalition government with Pervez Musharraf still in power as President. The election of Mr Zardari marks a most remarkable turnaround in the fortunes of a man who for most of his career has carried with him the most unceremonious title of Mr ten percent in depiction of his less than amicable business and political dealings. In fact before Ms Bhutto's death, Zardari’s public image was so bad that the Pakistan People’s Party went to great lengths to keep him out of the public eye as much as possible in the run up to February's general elections. Having so recently been seen as a liability for the PPP it is somewhat of a miracle that Zardari is in the position he now currently occupies.

This does not by any means imply that Mr Zardari has now gained immense popularity. On the contrary recent polls have suggested that forty four percent of the population rejected all three of the candidates in the general election. The PPP main opposition the Pakistan Muslim League (N) led by former two times prime minister, Nawaz Sharif (still the most popular politician in the country) holds sway in Pakistan’s wealthiest and most populous region of Punjab. Zardari’s comprehensive victory in the Presidential election did not rely on the population vote but a parliamentary electoral system where members of both of Pakistan’s parliamentary bodies and provincial assemblies decide on the new incumbent. Yet Zardari’s election as President has in the words of retired army General Talat Masood “made him the most powerful civilian President one can imagine." This is especially as he inherits a scope of powers that includes the ability to sack parliament, appoint army chiefs and control over Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal. Put it like that and many more would be indisposed to Zardari possessing the top job.

Unfortunately such simplistic notions do not hold sway over the ultimate factors that determine any politician’s fate especially in Pakistan. Asif Ali Zardari gained 480 of 702 Electoral College votes to give him victory and be sworn in as the fourteenth President of Pakistan in its sixty year history. A clearly delighted Zardari proclaimed the victory as a completion of the democratic process. Flanked by his two daughters, supporters and members of the PPP shouted slogans of ‘long live Bhutto’ in memory of their martyred leader. The assassination of Ms Bhutto has no doubt impacted on Zardari’s rise to president. Her death invigorated a fragmented political opposition in Pakistan which had failed to provide any serious opposition to Musharrafs’ reign as President. Yet it also provided Mr Zardari with a platform as de facto leader of the Pakistan’s largest political party to wield control. In the aftermath of Bhutto’s assassination Zardari’s accession has represented all the hall marks of a Machiavellian type politics to not in his words complete democracy but form a political dynasty led by him and allied to Bhutto name.

The story of this perceived cunningness begins in the immediate aftermath of Ms Bhutto’s assassination with the publication of her will which Zardari claimed to have. Her perceived wish was for her husband to take up the leadership of the political party. This is somewhat remarkable especially as mentioned Bhutto herself and the PPP had gone to great lengths to distance Zardari’s involvement with the party or politics in the aftermath of her return to Pakistan. Secondly given Zardari political liability and his status as a relative novice in such high office the decision seemed a strange one to say the least. What happened next was even more remarkable in that Asif Ali Zardari declined to accept such office and passed on the reigns to his nineteen year old son Bilawal. This was just as astonishing as Pakistan’s largest political party was to be headed by an Oxford undergraduate who had spent most of his life outside of Pakistan and had no political experience what so ever. The genius of such a manoeuvre on Zardari’s part was twofold. Firstly this was a man who realized his legitimacy for such high office was susceptible given his past dealings especially as at this point corruption charges continued to linger over him. To accept such a position without challenge would no doubt have led to the previous rhetoric of a devious and power hungry businessman come to the foe. Yet this is not a man who was about to let the opportunity of power slip so easily. In a supposed gesture of humility Zardari declined the position that his wife had anointed for him and passed the buck to his teenage son. Pakistani law does not allow someone so young to take up such high office and Zardari was not oblivious to this fact. While naming his son as a titular head for the time being Zardari would take up day to day running of the party and soon the country. He also announced that his children would from now forth be known by the name of Bhutto Zardari as opposed to the latter singular. Zardari use of Benazir’s death was symbolic making sure that the legacy of the Bhutto name would continue with him as its torch bearer. The famous Pakistani religious and political commentator Tariq Ali stated this in no uncertain terms in an article published in the Independent newspaper the day after Ms Bhutto’s assassination as he wrote "the Pakistan People's Party is being treated as a family heirloom, a property to be disposed of at the will of its leader,… the deadly angel who guided her when she was alive was, alas, not too concerned with democracy. And now he is in effect leader of the party."

What came next was an ingenious manipulation in the turmoil of Benazir’s death which would lead Zardari towards the top position. This was held at the time by Musharraf and first he must be got rid of. To do this Zardari called for unity on all sides to restore democracy in Pakistan. This meant allying himself with the traditional foe and influential ex Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif. This was a major coop as Sharif had perhaps a bigger axe to grind with the man whom he had appointed Army Chief and who later would dispose of him as leader of the country. This did not prove too difficult a job as firstly elections in the aftermath of Benazir’s assassination scored an inevitable victory for the PPP. The beneficiary it seemed was a Yousaf Raza Gillani vice chairman of the PPP who was drafted in as Prime Minister to complete what Zardari referred to as the first phase of restoration of democracy. This was another surprising decision to say the least. Firstly as Gillani was elected in front of the universally popular Makhdoom Muhammad Amin Fahim who had been de facto head of the PPP for eight years of Benazir Bhutto’s exile and whose election record is 7-0 as a member of parliament. It is no exaggeration to suggest that this was the man most qualified and legitimised to take over as leader of the PPP after Bhutto’s death. On March 15th 2008 Fahim himself said that he did not understand why the PPP had still not named him as its candidate. It is clear why as this was an influential man well liked by the people who would not be susceptible to manipulation by any other. What Zardari required was a puppet and despite such a bold and controversial interpretation such a claim can be emphasised by Mr Gillani’s arrival in Washington where upon he was greeted by none higher than Assistant Secretary of State Richard Boucher. Many news agencies reported on the lack of diplomatic courtesies extended towards Mr Gillani and his entourage who were told to remain on the plane while Mr Gillani and his wife looking rather perturbed walked to a welcome shed instead of the usual complimentary chauffer driven experience handed to state officials. It says much of the standing of an individual who despite heading a vital United States ally in foreign affairs not to mention a nuclear state is given such a lack of prominence upon a state visit. Notably Zardari’s visit as President a few months later did not see the absence of any of the usual pomp that accompanies significant world leaders.

The coalition government with an elected PM was now in a very strong position to get rid of Musharraf. Yet this coalition existed on a number of stipulations on Sharif’s part. Firstly the disposed Supreme Court judges that had caused such an up roar with in the country and in turn signaled the beginning of the end of Musharrafs rule where to be reinstated. Of course it was under this same judiciary that allegations pertaining to outstanding corruption charges against Zardari where still pending. With this condition agreed to but later not met and Sharif’s instance on both factions uniting behind a non partisan candidate to head the country as president Sharif announced his parties decision to cease from a coalition with the PPP on August 25th 2008 stating repeated broken promises by Asif Ali Zardari on resolving a judicial dispute and on who should be the next president. This was a cunning manoeuvre by Zardari to play Sharif against Musharraf, getting rid of one while isolating the other. The path was now clear for Zardari to put himself up for the top job of President. Mr 10 % was now to become Mr 100 per cent.

Of course such a view seems opinionated and open to vast scrutiny but what makes such sentiment is in the words of Dr Farzana Shaikh, of London's Chatham House think-tank, "the problem with Zardari is not that he is a unknown quantity it is he is a known quantity" and as the old proverb goes a leopard cannot change its spots. It remains to be seen how Zardari performs with troubles looming on all sides. The United States has moved quickly to make sure Zardari is in line with its war on terror strategy. Yet with the war spilling over into Pakistani borders recently the issue of Pakistani sovereignty has come to the foe with Zardari’s inaugural address siding very much with the American position. In relation to the much documented problems with the Taliban and Al-Qaida presence with in Pakistan Zardari made a bold statements presenting common ground with America on the issue. The response was brutal as a day later a car bomb decimated Islamabad’s Marriott Hotel sending a clear message to Zardari of the battle he faces. Secondly the issue of the army remains an everlasting problem for any elected official in Pakistan. Despite General Ashfaq Parvez Kayani stating very clearly that he would make sure the army stayed out of politics such sentiments can never be relied upon especially with Pakistan’s territorial sovereignty at stake. After all it was differences between Sharif and Musharraf over Kargil and India’s incursions that led to the former being dismissed. And finally there’s the Bhutto curse. Having allied himself with the Bhutto name and legacy Zardari must also contend with its consequence that has seen so many prominent members of the family killed. Even in his inaugural speech as President Zardari was keen to highlight the Bhutto influence stating "I accept this position on behalf of my martyred wife.’ Given Zardari’s past record a return of any of these most unsavoury incidents of Pakistan’s history may be a blessing in disguise for the nation". Yet as with any aspect of Pakistan’s turbulent history watch this space.


Written for Hii Dunia by Faisal Hanif

Picture: Getty Images